Down to the Wire in One of BC’s Most Competitive Ridings

As in many ridings across British Columbia and Canada this election, in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke the discussion is about the rising cost of living, an uncertain future and who is best to stand up to threats from the United States.

Typical of several ridings in B.C., the NDP is fighting to hold on to a seat it has had for 14 years, and both the Conservatives and Liberals see an opportunity to win. It is among the most competitive races anywhere. The latest projection by the polling aggregator site 338Canada rates Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke a three-way “toss-up” with the Greens far behind.

“I look at my [nine-year-old] son and his peer group,” says Maja Tait, the NDP candidate and the sitting mayor of Sooke. “What is the future like for them? Will he, and we, be able to afford to send him to [the] school he wants to go? Can he pursue the career that he really wants to do? Can he live where he goes to school? Can he access housing?”

Tait’s questions are similar to the concerns that motivated the Conservative candidate Grant Cool to enter the race.

“It was just very personal,” said Cool, an aerospace engineer and entrepreneur who has adult children between the ages of 25 and 37. “Seeing our children who are in the same range of a lot of the families out there trying to build their lives, buy homes, raise their children, and struggling to do that.”

A Conservative government would push the economy to the limits and start paying down the national debt while preserving what works well, he said. “It’s all our social structures in Canada,” he said. “We need to keep and maintain those, everything from our universal health-care system to public safety. At the same time we have to be able to afford them.”

For Stephanie McLean, the Liberal candidate, “The No. 1 issue that I hear from folks at the doorstep is concern about Donald Trump, about tariffs, about the impact on our local economy.... They’re concerned it’s going to drive the cost of living up even higher.”

McLean is a labour lawyer who was an MLA and cabinet minister in Rachel Notley’s Alberta NDP government from 2015 to 2019.

Asked why she is running as a Liberal and not for the NDP, McLean cited Mark Carney’s leadership. “It’s really about the political climate and the geopolitical issues that we’re facing right now,” she said. “When I look at the leaders of the party, as I was sitting at home worrying about the future of our country and my community given the threats that we’re facing, Mark Carney to me stands far above the other leaders, and I knew that I needed to support our country and our leadership at these times.”

She joined the Liberals during the leadership race to support Carney, then sought ways to help locally after he won. When she was asked to stand for election with the party, it was an easy decision, she said. “I didn’t expect to find myself back in politics now, but we are facing unprecedented threats from our closest neighbour and former ally, and when I was asked to stand up and serve my country, I knew that I needed to do so.”

‘What I have is energy’: Green candidate Homer-Dixon

Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke includes a slice of southernmost Vancouver Island from the Saanich Inlet to Jordan River. It includes rapidly growing suburbs west of Victoria, rural communities and a large naval base, home to Canada’s Pacific fleet.

Since 2011 the riding has been represented by the NDP’s Randall Garrison, who is not running again, but over the years its electoral tides have moved to their own mysterious rhythms. Before Garrison, the MP was Keith Martin, who started out with the Reform Party and finished as a Liberal.

In the 2021 election, Garrison won by a wide margin over Liberal and Conservative candidates who each took just over 20 per cent of the vote, but in the election before that, the second-place finisher was a Green.

This time the Green is 20-year-old Ben Homer-Dixon, whose closing remarks at an April 14 forum in Esquimalt included some frank self-reflection: “It’s true, I don’t have a university degree, I don’t have a huge network, and I have exactly two weeks’ — as of yesterday — experience in federal politics,” he said to strong applause.

Throughout the debate, he identified climate action, environmental protection and support for farmers as key focuses. “What I have is energy, commitment, idealism and the riding I live in full of people who believe in a better future too.”

Also running in the riding are David Schaafsma for the Christian Heritage Party, Communist Robert Crooks and Independent Param Bhatti.

Tax cuts ‘the main thing’: Conservative Grant Cool

Seeking public office for the first time, Cool said he became the Conservative candidate the day after the election was called. Since then, he estimates he’s talked with some 1,500 constituents while his campaign team have talked with many more.

“Without a doubt, 80 per cent, this is a very single-issue election for them,” said Cool. “It’s their personal finances, their family finances, affordability.”

For many, as much as 70 per cent of their income goes to paying for housing and taxes, he said. “They have lost the vast majority of their disposable income and they’re struggling to figure out how to deal with that.”

So what’s one thing he would do to address the affordability crisis? “The main thing, the first thing the party came out with, the tax reduction,” he said. “It’s the one thing you can do right away and you can make a big difference.”

The Conservatives pledged to reduce the income tax on the lowest tax bracket to 12.75 per cent, which they say would save an individual up to $928 a year once fully implemented. The other parties have also made smaller tax cut promises.

The other key to addressing affordability is to grow the economy, Cool said. “A big part of why I want to be part of this is because I think I can bring something to that job from my own work,” he said.

Cool’s resumé includes work on projects for the Canadian Space Agency and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration in the United States, as well as co-ownership of a company bringing hybrid airships into commercial production.

“What I bring to it is a connection to innovation, a connection to growth,” said Cool. “Canada does need to expand its revenue-making opportunities, its economic opportunities, and I think I bring a particular set of experiences and skills to that work.”

Many in the community are still deciding who to vote for and there is significant desire for change, both nationally and in local representation, he said. “This region has been represented by the third party, the NDP, for a long time and I think they’re questioning how that has worked out for them and they’re thinking of making a change.”

Asked what he would say to Canadians turned off by the actions of right-wing leaders in the United States, Cool said, “They’re not conservatives. I’m going to say it point blank: They are radicals.”

‘Put people first’: New Democrat Maja Tait

In an interview the NDP’s Tait spoke at length about strains on health care, including the difficulties many have finding primary care providers and the long wait times in emergency departments.

Management of health care may be provincial, but other levels of government have a role, said Tait. “I think it’s all government, and to say, ‘Oh it’s provincial, it’s federal, it’s local, it’s regional,’ but then nothing happens. People are continually going to fall into the cracks while we point the finger and tell someone else to do something. I think it’s an all-government approach.”

The extension of dental care and the start of a national pharmacare program were important wins for the federal NDP in opposition that make a real difference in people’s lives, she said.

As mayor of Sooke since 2014 and a municipal councillor for six years before that, Tait has served on the Capital Regional District board, on the Victoria Regional Transit Commission and as president of the Union of BC Municipalities. Knowing the community well is an asset she would bring to being MP, she said.

She’s seen the power of collaborating across different communities and levels of government, she said. “It’s all connected and when you put people first, all governments need to come together and work together for people. We’re all serving the same people.”

There is definitely concern on the doorsteps and in the community about economic threats and U.S. attacks on Canadian sovereignty, she said, adding that to combat the threats, Canada needs to keep strengthening its social fabric. “Canada is strong,” she said. “There’s tremendous potential, and we’re strong because we care about people. People look out for each other.”

The biggest issues are long-standing challenges, added Tait. “Housing, health care and affordability are the three main things.”

‘Seeing behind the curtain’: Liberal Stephanie McLean

Liberal candidate McLean said that while her provincial experience is an asset, she anticipates some differences in the federal arena. “I expect the learning to be really issues based,” she said. “There’s division of powers that determine what ability the government has at the federal level versus provincial versus municipal, and the scope of issues is inherently different as a result of that.”

The size and diversity of Canada also make it different from governing a province, she said, adding that representing local constituents and advocating on issues important to them would be key.

McLean said she also knows how to be a strong representative for her community in a time when power is consolidated in the offices of party leaders.

“My experience in politics, seeing behind the curtain, really informs my view of politics,” she said. “Regardless of what colour that banner is, what flag you fly, the party’s politics and how it governs and how it leads and the issues that are important to it are really guided and really determined by who the leader is. And so it is crucially important that voters look to who the leader is of any political party.”

The Liberal party under Carney is different than it has been under other leaders, and the same is true of the Conservative party under Pierre Poilievre, she said, adding, “We can see it’s much further to the right.”

Cool did not attend the April 14 debate at the Esquimalt naval base, but he did participate later in the week in a forum the Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce organized, and the party has been holding its own events as well.

In his closing remarks at the Esquimalt event, Homer-Dixon noted Cool’s absence and said he felt confident that either of the other candidates onstage with him, Tait and McLean, would do well. Ultimately, though, he made a pitch to voters to stick to their ideals and support a vision for a better and fairer country.

“While the world may feel like it’s lost all stability, this moment of enormous loss is an opportunity to challenge the rampant overconsumption, the fear of change and difference, and the destruction of ecosystems that have defined our society for too long,” he said. “Instead of capitulating to fear, let’s send a clear signal and stand up for what we believe in.”

Election day is April 28.