Four Predictions for Harper's Political Summer Plans

The horserace is on. We've seen leaders in cowboy hats and boots at the Calgary Stampede. Politicians are eating burgers and hot dogs at barbecues in every community. Government MPs are everywhere handing out cheques; Peter Poilievre even flew to Winnipeg to get his picture taken with the child benefit cheques as they came off the printing press (at least he did not put this picture on the cheques).

The polls have the NDP leading the race but the Tories and Liberals are both within striking distance in the longest campaign in our history, assuming the Prime Minister actually obeys his own law and calls the election for October. It is too close to choose a winner, especially this far out, but there are a few predictions that are much safer to make.

Prediction number one: Stephen Harper will announce that his government will bundle up a number of unrelated criminal justice bills and introduce an omnibus bill in the next session of Parliament. It remains to be seen if the Prime Minister will promise to pass it within the first hundred days. Bills that are likely to be included are: the Life Means Life bill; the statutory release bill; the removal of foreign criminals bill; the impaired driving bill; the mandatory minimum penalties for gun crimes bill; the military victims' bill of rights and something called the Protection of Communities from the Evolving Dangerous Drug Trade Act.

This will be Harper's third omnibus crime bill. In the past, he has tried to justify the omnibus bills, which he once called undemocratic, by blaming the opposition parties for stalling his crime bills, which was not true. But he can't claim that this time around since most of the bills were introduced days before the summer recess.

Prediction number two: Harper will try to scare us into voting for him. This one may not really be a prediction as much as an observation since Harper has been trying to scare us since 2006. Last week, he gave a speech to his "friends" and he said the "other guys" just don't understand the risks. He said that day in October was a reminder that Canada was not safe from jihadi terrorists. The other leaders are not prepared to protect us, but he is.

He chastised Mulcair for not calling the Ottawa October attack a terrorist attack and suggested Trudeau held the military in contempt. Ironic, since Harper never publicly recognized the Charleston shooting as a terrorist attack and Canada's vets have long been complaining about their treatment at the hands of Harper's government.

Prediction number three: At some point, whether Joe Oliver admits we are in a recession or that we are at risk of entering one, Harper will tell us now is not the right time to change the government. The economy is too fragile and needs the steady hand of Conservative government because the other guys spend too much on silly things. They don't understand priorities like government propaganda ads during the NHL playoffs, celebrations of centuries-old wars, more prison cells, and the Franklin Expedition. You know -- the really important stuff.

But he finally balanced a budget. Ironically, a few months ago the campaign message was vote for Harper because the economy is strong. Soon it will be vote for Harper because the economy is weak.

Prediction number four: Harper will try to raise the spectre of a dreaded NDP and Liberal coalition that will conspire to steal power if Canadians do not give him a strong, stable Conservative majority. He spoke last week about how there is little that differentiates the two parties. This may worry Conservative voters more than it will NDP and Liberal supporters who may care more about who is not Prime Minister than who is. People may be less opposed to the idea of Justin Trudeau and Tom Mulcair working together to defeat Stephen Harper than another Stephen Harper majority.

The best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour, so predicting what the Tories will do is pretty easy. But if you are Stephen Harper, if it's not broken, why fix it?