Tyee EC Battleground Home

By Will McMartin

For the duration of the provincial election, Election Central will provide daily updates to an exclusive seat projection model designed to estimate how British Columbia voters on May 17 will allocate the province’s 79 legislative seats. (See Battleground Chart.)

We will utilize historic election results and selected demographics, as well as public opinion polls, regional sources and input from Election Central readers. This information will be viewed through a unique model that divides B.C. into 13 sub-regions, from which estimated seat totals for the province’s political parties will be derived. Those evolving seat totals will be updated daily, in the box featured at the top of this page.

You can catch up on all Battleground BC stories by clicking the links below.

Battleground BC Stories

Last call! Liberals, 51 seats; NDP, 28 seats

Now is your chance to bet against McMartin and win a prize.

By Will McMartin, 15 May 2005

A Rule of Thumb for Seat Guess-timates

By Will McMartin, 14 May 2005

Polak's One of Three Seats Now Solidly Liberal

Langley, Penticton-Okanagan, and Vancouver-Point Grey upgraded from 'likely'.

By Will McMartin, 13 May 2005

The New Democratic Party and 'Polarization'

Lots of parties running, but this election is a two-party tilt.

By Will McMartin, 12 May 2005

The New Democratic Party: A Look Back

Will traditional NDP supporters who’ve abandoned the party return in 2005?

By Will McMartin, 11 May 2005

Two Kootenays Seats Go Opposite Directions

Columbia River-Revelstoke moves 'likely NDP' while East Kootenay is 'solid Liberal'.

By Will McMartin, 10 May 2005

The Green Party in BC: Provincial Elections

Carr is making a spirited but likely doomed run for a first Green seat.

By Will McMartin, 6 May 2005

Three Ridings Moved in Vancouver Island North Coast Region

No longer ‘up for grabs’: Powell River-Sunshine Coast, Alberni-Qualicum, Comox Valley

By Will McMartin, 9 May 2005

Tight Vancouver Races Diverge

Vancouver-Burrard now 'likely NDP', Vancouver-Fairview is 'likely Liberal.'

By Will McMartin, 10 May 2005

Poll Shifts Odds for Kamloops Area Libs

Krueger's seat downgraded to 'likely' while Richmond's solidifies.

By Will McMartin, 7 May 2005

The Green Party in BC: Reading the Federal Elections

Scant evidence to expect a breakthrough on May 17.

By Will McMartin, 5 May 2005

Okanagan-Vernon and Shuswap Shift 'Solid' for Libs

Unity Party not around to siphon off conservative voters this time.

By Will McMartin, 4 May 2005

Surrey-Panorama Ridge Now 'Likely Liberal'

NDP’s big byelection win probably won’t be repeated.

By Will McMartin, 3 May 2005

More on the North: Three Seats Go 'Likely Liberal'

Skeena, Prince George North and Prince George-Omineca no longer 'up for grabs.'

By Will McMartin, 2 May 2005

More on the North: Cariboo North, Cariboo South and North Coast

Two seats move to 'Solid Liberal' and one to 'Solid NDP'.

By Will McMartin, 1 May 2005

The North: Liberals Hard to Dislodge

The Greens and NDP got whipped in this region in 2001.

By Will McMartin, 30 Apr 2005

Vancouver Eastside Go 'Solid' NDP

Kensington and Kingsway move over from 'Likely'.

By Will McMartin, 29 Apr 2005

Maple Ridge tilts toward Liberals

Rising incomes push Frasier North ridings to the right: Port Moody-Westwood and Maple Ridge-Mission

By Will McMartin, 28 Apr 2005

NDP looks solid in New West, likely in Burnaby-Willingdon

Tax cuts, hospital closure help New Democrats

By Will McMartin, 27 Apr 2005

Two Victoria Area Seats Moved to ‘Solid NDP’

Victoria-Beacon Hill and Victoria Hillside firm up for the New Democrats.

By Will McMartin, 26 Apr 2005

Vancouver Island South: Household Incomes and Vote Shares

Last election, Greens’ strongest showing was in this region.

By Will McMartin, 25 Apr 2005

Two Surrey Area Ridings No Longer ‘Up for Grabs’

Surrey-Newton is now ‘likely NDP,’ Delta North shifts to ‘likely Liberal’.

By Will McMartin, 24 Apr 2005

Nanaimo and Nanaimo-Parksville Moving Left, Right

The Tyee is shifting Nanaimo into ‘solid NDP’ and Nanaimo-Parksville into ‘likely Liberal.’

By Will McMartin, 21 Apr 2005

North-Central Surrey: Pocketbook Voting Patterns

Wealthier zones of this region go Liberal, poorer go NDP.

By Will McMartin, 22 Apr 2005

Two Surrey Ridings Solidify Liberal and NDP

The Tyee is moving Surrey-Tynehead into the ‘solid Liberal’ column while Surrey-Green Timbers goes ‘solid NDP’.

By Will McMartin, 23 Apr 2005

Vancouver Island North-Coast: Pocketbook Voting

In this region, like most others, average household incomes correlate strongly with vote-shares.

By Will McMartin, 20 Apr 2005

West Kootenay-Boundary and Nelson Creston Move into ‘Solid’ NDP column.

Two NDP strongholds firm up.

By Will McMartin, 19 Apr 2005

Looks Bleak for Third Parties

Don’t Expect Minor Parties to Elect an MLA

By Will McMartin, 18 Apr 2005

Vancouver Island North-Coast: Leaning Left Again

But Alberni-Qualicum, Comox Valley, Nanaimo-Parksville and Powell River-Sunshine Coast are up for grabs.

By Will McMartin, 16 Apr 2005

Vancouver Island South: Carole James Territory

For the first time in decades, the NDP was shut out here in 2001.

By Will McMartin, 17 Apr 2005

Vancouver Eastside: The NDP Stronghold

But Mayencourt vs. Stevenson makes a close race in Vancouver’s West End.

By Will McMartin, 10 Apr 2005

Fraser North: A Wild Ride

New Dems likely to re-take New West and two more, Libs to get one, and six up for grabs.

By Will McMartin, 9 Apr 2005

Vancouver Westside: Premier’s Stomping Ground

Two seats nailed down for Libs, but watch Vancouver-Fairview.

By Will McMartin, 11 Apr 2005

Richmond: Solidly Liberal

Last time the NDP won anything here: 1972.

By Will McMartin, 13 Apr 2005

North Shore: Another Lib Sweep?

Looks like it, but North Vancouver-Lonsdale might be interesting.

By Will McMartin, 12 Apr 2005

Home Values: Pricing the Voters’ Neighbourhoods

North Coast homes are, on average, a half million dollars less than in Vancouver-Quilchena.

By Will McMartin, 10 Apr 2005

Seeking Shelter: Campaigns Scrutinize Home Ownership

Voting patterns can be tied to whether citizens own or rent their abodes.

By Will McMartin, 9 Apr 2005

North-Central Surrey: A Key Battlefront

Traditionally left-leaning, swept by Libs in 2001, six ridings in serious play.

By Will McMartin, 8 Apr 2005

Fraser Valley South: Nine Liberal Seats Likely

Social conservative Mary Polak should find a warm embrace this time in Langley.

By Will McMartin, 7 Apr 2005

Oops, Corrections

By Will McMartin, 6 Apr 2005

The Kootenays: Good Hunting for NDP

Liberals swept all four seats in 2001. Not likely this election.

By Will McMartin, 6 Apr 2005

Big Gap between Rich and Poor Ridings

Voting patterns tend to reflect household income. It’s three times higher in some ridings than others.

By Will McMartin, 5 Apr 2005

The Okanagan, a Liberal Stronghold

Region anchored by Kelowna is fast growing and right-leaning.

By Will McMartin, 4 Apr 2005

Seniors with Clout: Ridings Where Elderly Voters Hold Sway

You’ll find them in the sunny parts of the province.

By Will McMartin, 3 Apr 2005

BC’s Electoral Regions: Skewed Populations

Attempts to even out voter numbers haven’t succeeded.

By Will McMartin, 2 Apr 2005

The Thompson-Coquihalla, Lali Returns

Liberals likely to hold at least three, but NDP has prospered in the past.

By Will McMartin, 1 Apr 2005

The North, a Huge Opportunity for NDP

Economy, BC Rail deal are big factors.

By Will McMartin, 31 Mar 2005

Let the Battle Begin

Election Central’s riding-by-riding predictions to be posted daily.

By Will McMartin, 27 Mar 2005

Not All Ridings Created Equal (in Population)

And that makes it hard for pollsters.

By Will McMartin, 30 Mar 2005