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Nearly a third of respondents to a survey on the Conservative Party of BC leadership race said they are undecided about whom to support.
“Without a clear front-runner at this stage, the race will be determined by second and third choice votes, how undecided voters choose and new recruits,” Mainstreet Research’s CEO Quito Maggi said in the company’s release. “While this race is inherently difficult to predict, one thing is certain: this outcome will not be decided early in the ranked ballot voting.”
Mainstreet was transparent that the survey was commissioned by the campaign of Peter Milobar, the Kamloops Centre MLA whom it found to be one of the two leading candidates among respondents who had decided whom to vote for.
The Milobar campaign’s release, in contrast, called the survey an “independent poll” by an “independent pollster” and failed to note its own connection to it.
Milobar, a former Kamloops mayor and BC Liberal MLA, and Caroline Elliott, a former BC United party vice-president and staffer in Gordon Campbell’s BC Liberal government, each had support from just over 20 per cent of respondents.
Former BC Liberal cabinet minister Iain Black and former Conservative member of Parliament Kerry-Lynne Findlay got around eight per cent support each, while Yuri Fulmer, Darrell Jones and Warren Hamm trailed.
In recent weeks the field has narrowed to seven contestants, down from the 11 who had previously announced their intentions to run.
The leadership contest uses a ranked ballot, which means eligible members can rank the candidates. If no one reaches a majority on the first count, the candidate with the fewest votes is dropped. Their supporters’ second choices are distributed to the remaining candidates. That continues until someone wins a majority.
When Mainstreet took second and third choices into consideration and added regional weighting to simulate how the actual counting will be done, Milobar had 50.5 per cent support to Elliott’s 49.5 per cent.
While the candidates hope to show momentum and stand out in a wide field early in the race, much can shift as the campaigns continue to sign up new members and many likely voters remain undecided.
The sample for the survey, conducted Thursday to Sunday by email and text messages, included both current Conservative party members and Conservative voters who said they intend to become members before the April 18 deadline for being eligible to vote in the leadership contest.
“While a random sample of a non-random population like a membership does not carry a traditional margin of error, for comparison, a random probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/-1.93 19 times out of 20,” Mainstream said.
The survey also found the top issues for respondents were the cost of living and affordability (34.2 per cent), land and property rights (25.9 per cent) and jobs and the economy (15.2 per cent).
It gave Milobar the edge as “best to unify the party and defeat the NDP,” the lead voting factor for respondents.
The race, which became necessary when former leader John Rustad resigned in early December after months of division and a caucus revolt, is scheduled to conclude when the winner is announced on May 30. ![[Tyee]](/design-article.thetyee.ca/ui/img/yellowblob.png){kind=small}
Read more: BC Politics
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