Albertans Want to Stay. But Smith’s Referendum Is Still Dangerous

A public opinion survey published last Friday by the Ipsos polling firm suggests that support for separation from Canada is both limited and decreasing in Alberta, a trend that I’m betting will grow more evident as Albertans start paying attention to what Premier Danielle Smith and her government have perpetrated by starting the ball rolling to a referendum on Oct. 19.

The poll “shows there is a low and declining appetite for separation in Alberta,” the large polling firm said when it released the results. “The poll also shows that Albertans who want to stay in Canada are more certain of their choice than those who are considering a vote for separation.”

The Ipsos poll indicated “only 18 per cent of residents say they would vote for Alberta to separate from Canada if a future binding referendum is held on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada” — plus, “most (72 per cent) Albertans say they would vote for Alberta to stay in Canada.” Nine per cent indicated they were undecided, wouldn’t vote, or whatever.

The Ipsos poll also indicated support for moving on to a binding referendum was lowest in Calgary, although not much higher in Edmonton.

The same day, another national polling firm, Léger, reached similar conclusions based on slightly different questions. While it wasn’t the number every news story emphasized, according to Léger, “73 per cent of Albertans say Alberta should remain part of Canada, while 15 per cent say it should become an independent country.”

Both surveys were in the field in approximately the same time period — May 28 to June 1 for Ipsos and May 29 to June 1 for Léger. So, a couple of days before Smith admitted that the cost of separating from Canada for whoever was left in Alberta would be at least $400 billion, not the ludicrously low $37 billion her former allies in the separatist movement have been promising. The former poll surveyed 1,500 Canadians, of whom 600 were in Alberta; the latter, 1,014 Albertans.

Time will tell whether this trend continues. Thanks to polling analyst Éric Grenier, it will be easier to see what the trendline is with the Alberta referendum poll tracker he launched on his Substack.

Be careful, though, since he and other commentators may emphasize different numbers from each poll, leaving lots of opportunities for commentators to see what they wish in the murk of completing claims and the ongoing foreign-financed disinformation and misinformation campaign on social media. Nobody ever believes a poll with numbers they don’t like.

No doubt as a result of surveys like these, some severely normal Albertans who have been worried about the UCP’s reckless insistence on a separation referendum may feel they can relax and stop worrying about a movement dominated by MAGA-influenced Christian nationalists and sour-grapes Conservatives who would break up our country because they’re apparently incapable of winning a federal election.

On the common-sense principle that one should hope for the best and plan for the worst, this could turn out to be a mistake.

Remember, there are many reasons to continue to worry despite the evidence that separation from Canada is the last thing a majority of Albertans want. Among them:

• The purloined Elections Alberta voters list now in the hands of hundreds, possibly thousands of U.S.-based, MAGA-affiliated and foreign-financed bad actors, who will not hesitate to use the data to influence the results of the referendum, not to mention to defraud Albertans of their savings for years to come.
• Elections Alberta’s hard-to-satisfy need to hire 60,000 election workers to count the ballots on the UCP’s confusing and manipulative raft of 10 referendum questions, nine intended to blame immigrants for problems created by neoliberal economics and justify UCP intrusion into federal jurisdiction, plus the separation question. In addition to being extremely expensive — no one seems to know yet just how expensive — this creates another opportunity for the separatist fringe to try to interfere with voting.
• Continued uncertainty about what motivates Smith and the UCP in this campaign. As Ipsos put it in its commentary, “Both stay and separation voters think Danielle Smith wants the opposite of themselves.” Given the premier’s conduct, there is good reason for this confusion and distrust.
• The likelihood there are separatist fifth columnists in high places in the federal Conservative party who may be inclined to get up to mischief. Certainly there are federal Conservative MPs who will be very careful not to reveal how they lean on this topic, notwithstanding Leader Pierre Poilievre’s promise that they’ll all support “a strong Alberta within a united Canada,” a watered-down version of Smith’s oxymoronic “sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.”
• The danger of “Alberta fatigue” in the rest of Canada. And who can blame them if they’re getting sick of this nonsense. A lot of us are too.

Corb Lund delivers ‘Water Not Coal’ petition

Better make that 11 referendums. Leastways, reluctant environmental activist and popular country music performer Corb Lund Wednesday delivered to Elections Alberta an estimated 200,000 signatures for his “Water Not Coal” referendum petition.

“Albertans showed up for their water, their land and their future,” Lund said in a news release. “Reaching this threshold proves what we’ve known all along — people care deeply about protecting our headwaters, our Rocky Mountains and our way of life.”

The petition calls for legislation prohibiting new coal mining and exploration on the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains. It specifically mentions Northback Holdings’ proposed Grassy Mountain Mine and Valory Resources’ proposed Blackstone Mine.

However, the news release added, “coal mining threatens the entire eastern slopes region and the critical headwaters that feed the Athabasca, Oldman, South Saskatchewan, North Saskatchewan Peace and Red Deer river systems — lifelines for communities, agriculture and ecosystems across southern Alberta.”