For the duration of the provincial election, Election Central will provide daily updates to an exclusive seat projection model designed to estimate how British Columbia voters on May 17 will allocate the province’s 79 legislative seats. (See Battleground Chart.)
We will utilize historic election results and selected demographics, as well as public opinion polls, regional sources and input from Election Central readers. This information will be viewed through a unique model that divides B.C. into 13 sub-regions, from which estimated seat totals for the province’s political parties will be derived. Those evolving seat totals will be updated daily, in the box featured at the top of this page.
You can catch up on all Battleground BC stories by clicking the links below.
Battleground BC Stories
Last call! Liberals, 51 seats; NDP, 28 seats
Now is your chance to bet against McMartin and win a prize.
Polak's One of Three Seats Now Solidly Liberal
Langley, Penticton-Okanagan, and Vancouver-Point Grey upgraded from 'likely'.
The New Democratic Party and 'Polarization'
Lots of parties running, but this election is a two-party tilt.
The New Democratic Party: A Look Back
Will traditional NDP supporters who’ve abandoned the party return in 2005?
Two Kootenays Seats Go Opposite Directions
Columbia River-Revelstoke moves 'likely NDP' while East Kootenay is 'solid Liberal'.
The Green Party in BC: Provincial Elections
Carr is making a spirited but likely doomed run for a first Green seat.
Three Ridings Moved in Vancouver Island North Coast Region
No longer ‘up for grabs’: Powell River-Sunshine Coast, Alberni-Qualicum, Comox Valley
Tight Vancouver Races Diverge
Vancouver-Burrard now 'likely NDP', Vancouver-Fairview is 'likely Liberal.'
Poll Shifts Odds for Kamloops Area Libs
Krueger's seat downgraded to 'likely' while Richmond's solidifies.
The Green Party in BC: Reading the Federal Elections
Scant evidence to expect a breakthrough on May 17.
Okanagan-Vernon and Shuswap Shift 'Solid' for Libs
Unity Party not around to siphon off conservative voters this time.
Surrey-Panorama Ridge Now 'Likely Liberal'
NDP’s big byelection win probably won’t be repeated.
More on the North: Three Seats Go 'Likely Liberal'
Skeena, Prince George North and Prince George-Omineca no longer 'up for grabs.'
More on the North: Cariboo North, Cariboo South and North Coast
Two seats move to 'Solid Liberal' and one to 'Solid NDP'.
The North: Liberals Hard to Dislodge
The Greens and NDP got whipped in this region in 2001.
Vancouver Eastside Go 'Solid' NDP
Kensington and Kingsway move over from 'Likely'.
Maple Ridge tilts toward Liberals
Rising incomes push Frasier North ridings to the right: Port Moody-Westwood and Maple Ridge-Mission
NDP looks solid in New West, likely in Burnaby-Willingdon
Tax cuts, hospital closure help New Democrats
Two Victoria Area Seats Moved to ‘Solid NDP’
Victoria-Beacon Hill and Victoria Hillside firm up for the New Democrats.
Vancouver Island South: Household Incomes and Vote Shares
Last election, Greens’ strongest showing was in this region.
Two Surrey Area Ridings No Longer ‘Up for Grabs’
Surrey-Newton is now ‘likely NDP,’ Delta North shifts to ‘likely Liberal’.
Nanaimo and Nanaimo-Parksville Moving Left, Right
The Tyee is shifting Nanaimo into ‘solid NDP’ and Nanaimo-Parksville into ‘likely Liberal.’
North-Central Surrey: Pocketbook Voting Patterns
Wealthier zones of this region go Liberal, poorer go NDP.
Two Surrey Ridings Solidify Liberal and NDP
The Tyee is moving Surrey-Tynehead into the ‘solid Liberal’ column while Surrey-Green Timbers goes ‘solid NDP’.
Vancouver Island North-Coast: Pocketbook Voting
In this region, like most others, average household incomes correlate strongly with vote-shares.
West Kootenay-Boundary and Nelson Creston Move into ‘Solid’ NDP column.
Two NDP strongholds firm up.
Looks Bleak for Third Parties
Don’t Expect Minor Parties to Elect an MLA
Vancouver Island North-Coast: Leaning Left Again
But Alberni-Qualicum, Comox Valley, Nanaimo-Parksville and Powell River-Sunshine Coast are up for grabs.
Vancouver Island South: Carole James Territory
For the first time in decades, the NDP was shut out here in 2001.
Vancouver Eastside: The NDP Stronghold
But Mayencourt vs. Stevenson makes a close race in Vancouver’s West End.
Fraser North: A Wild Ride
New Dems likely to re-take New West and two more, Libs to get one, and six up for grabs.
Vancouver Westside: Premier’s Stomping Ground
Two seats nailed down for Libs, but watch Vancouver-Fairview.
Richmond: Solidly Liberal
Last time the NDP won anything here: 1972.
North Shore: Another Lib Sweep?
Looks like it, but North Vancouver-Lonsdale might be interesting.
Home Values: Pricing the Voters’ Neighbourhoods
North Coast homes are, on average, a half million dollars less than in Vancouver-Quilchena.
Seeking Shelter: Campaigns Scrutinize Home Ownership
Voting patterns can be tied to whether citizens own or rent their abodes.
North-Central Surrey: A Key Battlefront
Traditionally left-leaning, swept by Libs in 2001, six ridings in serious play.
Fraser Valley South: Nine Liberal Seats Likely
Social conservative Mary Polak should find a warm embrace this time in Langley.
The Kootenays: Good Hunting for NDP
Liberals swept all four seats in 2001. Not likely this election.
Big Gap between Rich and Poor Ridings
Voting patterns tend to reflect household income. It’s three times higher in some ridings than others.
The Okanagan, a Liberal Stronghold
Region anchored by Kelowna is fast growing and right-leaning.
Seniors with Clout: Ridings Where Elderly Voters Hold Sway
You’ll find them in the sunny parts of the province.
BC’s Electoral Regions: Skewed Populations
Attempts to even out voter numbers haven’t succeeded.
The Thompson-Coquihalla, Lali Returns
Liberals likely to hold at least three, but NDP has prospered in the past.
The North, a Huge Opportunity for NDP
Economy, BC Rail deal are big factors.
Let the Battle Begin
Election Central’s riding-by-riding predictions to be posted daily.
Not All Ridings Created Equal (in Population)
And that makes it hard for pollsters.
