Nenshi’s NDP Posts Strong Showing in Monday Byelections

Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi mopped the floor with his opponents in the Edmonton-Strathcona byelection Monday.

Nenshi can now join his caucus in the legislature with his head held high, a convincing 82.5 per cent victory behind him.

In the 2023 general election, party leader and former premier Rachel Notley captured 79.7 per cent of the vote, albeit on a higher turnout. Nenshi’s 7,952 votes in the unofficial results from Elections Alberta after the polls closed Monday night will be just fine, thank you very much.

The Alberta Liberal Party (195 votes), Alberta Party (115), Republican Party of Alberta (65) and the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition (24, but loyalty to what, one wonders?) could all have saved themselves considerable embarrassment if they hadn’t bothered to run anyone at all in Edmonton-Strathcona.

United Conservative Party candidate Darby Crouch’s 1,314 votes or 13.6 per cent should mildly embarrass the government party, but at least her feisty campaign appears to have saved the UCP from utter humiliation experienced by the other four.

“Danielle Smith and the UCP have now lost three byelections in the last six months and have massively reduced their lead in a fourth,” Nenshi said in a statement after his victory was assured.

“Voters sent a clear message tonight that the UCP doesn’t have a plan for a better future. No matter what the UCP throws at their campaigns, they come up short.

“A premier of Alberta must be a premier for all of us, and must work to improve our great province and our beautiful country,” he continued. “I’m ready to get to work building an Alberta where everyone has a real shot at a good life. Where jobs are strong, life is affordable, and opening your utility bill doesn’t make your stomach drop. Where health care is accessible, and yes, where every family finally has a family doctor. Where schools are strong, teachers and education workers are supported, and every child has the chance to thrive. Where safety means prevention, not just response. And where Alberta takes its place as a proud, united part of Canada.”

Meanwhile, a few kilometres south in Edmonton-Ellerslie, the race between the NDP and UCP candidates was closer, but the NDP lead was convincing enough at the final bell that Nenshi is unlikely to see party traditionalists who have been restive about his leadership performance dare to make an issue of it.

The NDP’s Gurtej Singh Brar posted a clear majority: 4,327 votes or 50.8 per cent of the vote, compared to 3,239 votes or 38 per cent for the UCP’s Naresh Bhardwaj. Not one of the candidates for the Alberta Liberals, Alberta Party, RPA or WLC managed to crack five per cent of the vote.

So, all told, it was a good night for Nenshi.

But who imagined the most exciting horse race in Alberta’s three byelections would be in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills?

Not for who won that rural byelection, of course. UCP candidate Tara Sawyer won easily, with 9,363 votes, or a respectable 61 per cent of the unofficial tally. (That compared to 75 per cent won by Nathan Cooper in 2023, so you can make something of that if you wish. Personally, I’m not that excited by that difference.)

The real race in the riding was for who would come second. And, I must confess, I didn’t have the NDP pushing out the separatist Republican Party of Alberta for second place in this very conservative riding on my bingo card, with 3,061 votes compared to the Republican Party’s 2,705. The Wildrose Loyalty Coalition managed a paltry 189.

Yeah, tribal loyalty to any party with the word “Conservative” in its name is to be expected in rural Alberta, but it’s reassuring to know the 51st staters of the RPA couldn’t muster as many votes for Cameron Davies as the New Democrats in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills could for Bev Toews.

Others will spin things different ways, of course, but I would say it was not a particularly good night for Premier Danielle Smith and the UCP, notwithstanding their sturdy results in rural Central Alberta.

If the results achieved there by the Republican Party were to be duplicated in the next general election in places like Lethbridge-East and Morinville-St. Albert, UCP cabinet ministers like Nathan Neudorf and Dale Nally would be done like dinner.